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[Please don’t share this newsletter yet. It is in test mode until January 2025.] NEWS In underwater news, BAE appears to have successfully demonstrated a new type of autonomous submarine, developed specifically for military use. This is hot on the heels of last week’s news that Vatn Systems is developing autonomous underwater swarming technology. There is clear demand for this kind of product. To me, the underwater environment seems like a natural habitat for autonomous technology, much like the sky is for UAVs. Below the waves, autonomous vehicles are less susceptible to sea conditions which can affect small surface craft, and the underwater battlespace is much less congested, enabling greater freedom of movement. To date, product development in the sector has been held back by the technology available. Simply put, we needed humans to monitor the complex array of systems required to steer a metal tube around under the sea, and make important decisions along the way. That is now changing as inertial navigation, acoustic modems, sonar, optical sensors and more can be combined with AI to deliver a human-less capability. In the medium term we may see these products develop in the same way that drones have in sky. There will be many standalone use cases, such as special forces operations or protection of underwater infrastructure. I think, eventually, they will also be deployed alongside ‘normal’ submarines in the same way that we are starting to see wingman drones flying alongside 5th gen fighter jets. (LINK)
In wingman news, Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works has been testing a wingman drone which can receive real-time commands from an airborne battle manager. This is a concept in which unmanned drones work with piloted aircraft, scouting ahead or doing other high risk missions. A number of countries are now developing this capability and it appears that it will be an important component of the next generation of fighter jets.
Rather than heralding the impending extinction of the human fighter pilot, I see this as a radical augmentation of current air power capability. Wingman drones could act as teammates in a dogfight, carry additional munitions for close air support or even serve as air-to-air refuelling platforms. In scenarios deemed too risky for a crewed fighter jet, a wingman drone could fill the gap, while still being controlled by an airborne battle manager. They will enable human fighter pilots to do more, rather than less. (LINK) European Union member countries are considering cutting a list of critical technologies that would be subject to foreign direct investment (FDI) screening, making it easier for them to fall into the hands of adversarial powers like China. This has been proposed by Hungary, one of the most pro-China governments in the EU. MEPs might be tempted to vote this through, believing that it will stimulate growth. I think instead it will introduce risk of technology exfiltration. China has demonstrated a pattern of acquiring critical technologies through investments in foreign companies, often with the goal of advancing its own military and economic agendas. It is also likely to erode trust among allies, in particular the US, which has deployed robust measures to counter China’s growing influence in key technological domains. (LINK) China is rapidly increasing the number of robots being used in its workforce, and has now overtaken Germany and Japan in this measure. It has doubled its density of robots since 2019. Here in the West we don’t see much of what goes on inside China, with the exception of periodic headlines about crackdowns on protests or housing market collapses. There are occasional indicators that China is taking technological development very seriously. This is one of them. Washington has woken up to this, but it seems that Brussels has yet to (see above). (LINK) Dawn Aerospace's Mk-II Aurora rocket UAV has broken the sound barrier, reaching Mach 1.1 and an altitude of 25 km during a test flight in New Zealand. This achievement marks a significant step toward the company's goal of developing hypersonic aircraft for commercial operations, including low-cost space access and satellite transport. This is incredibly impressive given how little the company has spent so far ($10m). The affordability of Dawn’s technology will mean that more companies and governments are able to put things in space. That is broadly a good thing. It will also introduce more competition in a sector currently dominated by SpaceX. That is definitely a good thing. (LINK) FUNDRAISING Inversion, a California-based company which develops autonomous re-entry vehicles designed to deliver cargo from space to Earth, raised $44m. (LINK) Tokamak, a UK-based developer of nuclear fusion technology, raised a $125m round, with investment from British Patient Capital. (LINK) Iontra, a Colorado-based company which develops advanced battery charging technology that enhances the performance and lifespan of lithium and zinc batteries, raised a $45m Series C. (LINK) Molyon, a UK-based developer of lithium-sulfur batteries that offer higher energy density compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries, raised a $4.6m round. IQ Capital and Plural co-led the deal. (LINK) The Exploration Company, a Munich and Bordeaux based developer of space capsules, has raised a $160m Series B. (LINK) Radiant Industries, a California-based developer of micro nuclear generators, raised a $100m Series C. DefenceTech startups have raised $3bn so far in 2024, a new record. (LINK)
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