This Week in Dual-Use
NEWS
The Chinese complication to an invasion of Cuba
I was speaking with an American government official on Friday who has spent decades in national security. We talked about the situation in Cuba and what an American invasion might look like. He mused that the American enthusiasm to invade Cuba seems dampened by its experience in Iran. But it will need to act before elections in November if an invasion is to provide a political boost.
The Trump administration has spent months ratcheting up the pressure on Havana. A US carrier group has been on station in the Caribbean since the spring. And the Pentagon has flown more than 150 hours of reconnaissance over the island since February.
What is less discussed is that any US plan against Cuba has navigate a Chinese signals intelligence (SIGINT) presence on the ground. CSIS has identified four facilities likely supporting Chinese intelligence operations: Bejucal, Wajay, Calabazar and El Salao.
Bejucal (site of Soviet nuclear weapons during the 1962 missile crisis) is being upgraded with a new circular antenna array used for high-frequency direction finding. It will characterise American communications and radar emissions.
This may change the calculus for the US. Bejucal is not really a Cuban target; it is a Chinese one, sitting on Cuban territory. Striking it kinetically would be the most direct US action against Chinese infrastructure since the bombing of the embassy in Belgrade in 1999. Leaving it intact would mean conducting operations under the eye of a hostile SIGINT facility uniquely positioned to characterise US emissions in real time. Neither option is comfortable.
There is a defence-tech answer to that dilemma which I suspect is already being explored. Cyber and electronic warfare effects against fixed SIGINT infrastructure carry far lower escalation costs than a Tomahawk strike. The US has invested heavily in this domain for the last decade and Bejucal is precisely the kind of target it was built for.
The Ukrainian Patriot missile
On 3 June, Ukrainian missile manufacturer Fire Point published a video on X showing a test flight of the FP-7.X ballistic missile interceptor. If successfully deployed, the Ukrainian ballistic missile defence program could address the increasingly severe Patriot interceptor shortage. It might also lessen Europe’s dependence on the US for ballistic missile defence.
Russia is able to build ~700 ballistic missiles a year. And the US builds ~600 Patriot interceptors. Since it takes 2-3 Patriots to reliably stop a Russian Iskander, the maths is in Russia’s favour. And Fire Point, the builder of the FP-7.X, is reportedly assembling the system from off-the-shelf European hardware and open-source software.
A Patriot costs ~$4M per missile, and Lockheed won't hit its 2,000-a-year target until 2030. Fire Point claims its interceptor will cost a fraction of that, built on commercial components rather than a bespoke defence supply chain.
Hitting a manoeuvring ballistic target is among the hardest problems in warfare. Although Ukraine has already turned cheap drones into a strategic weapon, the technology required to reliably bring down Iskanders is significantly more advanced. The Patriot itself only became successful after decades of iterative development. And MBDA’s SAMP/T missile (a European Patriot equivalent) requires an upgrade to the Ka-band radar seeker for it to be fully effective in Ukraine.
One of my predictions for 2026 was Ukrainian defence tech would begin to dominate global defence tech. It will be interesting to see how Fire Point develops its interceptor. It is at least able to test it regularly in a live environment.
FUNDRAISING
DEFENCE
Allen Control Systems, an American developer of counter-drone systems, raised a $200M Series B at a $2.2B valuation led by Smash Capital.
Alta Ares, a French developer of counter-drone systems, raised a €50M Series A co-led by Air Street Capital and OTB Ventures.
Volund Manufacturing, an American developer of low-cost gas turbine engines, raised a $12M seed round co-led by Squadra and Root Ventures.
Shifters, an American-Israeli developer of autonomous ground robots, raised a $10.2M seed round led by Ace Capital Partners.
Westmag, an American manufacturer of drone motors and robot actuators, emerged from stealth with $11M in seed funding led by a16z.
Molfar Defence Technologies, a Polish-Ukrainian developer of a tactical small-UAV radar, raised €1.5M led by Front Ventures.
DOD Solution, an Estonian-Ukrainian developer of embedded artificial intelligence platforms and onboard computing for unmanned systems, raised $1.1M in pre-seed funding.
SPACE
ICEYE, a Polish-Finnish producer of satellites, raised €1B in funding at a €10B valuation, led by General Atlantic.
Isar Aerospace, a German developer of space launch capability, raised a €270M Series D co-led by Island Green Capital and Molten Ventures.
Observable Space, an American developer of laser satellite links, raised a $90M debut round co-led by Lux Capital, Upfront Ventures, RTX Ventures.
Unastella, a South Korean rocket startup, raised a $24M Series B led by Altos Ventures.
SparkSpace, a Chinese developer of launch capabilities, raised $14.7M in pre-Series A funding.
QUANTUM
Qobly, a French developer of a silicon-based quantum computing platform and cloud-accessible commercial system, raised a €115M Series A co-led by Bpifrance, SEALSQ and STMicroelectronics.
QuantLabs, an Australian developer of optical atomic clocks for defence, space and critical infrastructure applications, raised a $5M seed round led by Serendipity Capital.
GOING PUBLIC
OpenAI, the American AI lab behind ChatGPT, has filed for an IPO. It was recently valued at $965B.
Quantinuum, an American developer of trapped-ion quantum computers, will begin trading on the Nasdaq after raising $1.7B in an IPO that values the company at $14-15B.
Applied Aerospace & Defense, an American defence and space subsystem manufacturer, went public on the New York Stock Exchange, raising $650M and valuing the company at $3.3B.